Recent performance indicators in the European road freight transport sector show there is an excess capacity. To shed light on this, this paper studies two aspects of capacity utilisation in trucking: the extent of empty running and the load factor. Using a joint econometric modelling framework, the paper shows that they can be explained as a function of haul, carrier, and truck characteristics. For estimation, a unique dataset from the Danish heavy vehicle trip diary was used. The results indicate distance and being a for-hire carrier have a positive effect on capacity utilisation, whereas the effect of truck size is non-linear.

There has been a growing interest in understanding how firms allocate their trucks across hauls, and how this allocation changes under various economic environments. This study investigates how variations in route/haul, carrier and vehicle characteristics affect the optimal vehicle size choice and the associated choice of shipment size. We show that the two choices are derived from the same optimization problem. There can be a continuum of shipment sizes, but decision-makers in freight transport have to choose from a limited number of vehicle alternatives. Therefore, we use a discrete-continuous econometric model where shipment size is modeled as a continuous variable, and vehicle size/type choice as a discrete variable. The results indicate that when faced with higher demand, and during longer trips firms are more likely to use heavier vehicles and ship in larger quantities which suggest that firms are realizing economies of scale and economies of distance. The study also discusses the effect of vehicle operating cost on the vehicle selection process and its policy implications.

In freight transportation, decisions regarding the choice of transport mode (or chains of modes) and shipment size are closely linked. Building on this basic insight, in this paper we estimate and review various joint econometric models using the Swedish National Commodity Flow surveys. Robust parameter estimates from this exercise will be used to update the current deterministic Swedish national freight model system (the SAMGODS model) to a stochastic one.

This paper proposes a discrete bidding model for both quantities and pricing. It has a two-unit demand environment where subjects bid for contracts with an unknown redemption value, common to all bidders. Prior to bidding, the bidders receive private signals of information on the (common) value. The value and the signals are drawn from a known discrete affiliated joint distribution. The relevant task for the paper is to compare the equilibrium strategies and the seller’s revenue of three auction formats. We find that, of the three auctionformats below with two players, the discriminatory auction always gives the largest revenue to the seller; both the uniform and the Vickrey auction have zero revenue equilibrium strategies that put them further down in the revenue ranking. In equilibrium, bidders bid the same amount on both items in the discriminatory auction; a phenomenon not noted in either of the other auction formats.

This study addresses a discrete common value environment with independent (one-dimensional) private signals, where the seller offers two identical units and the buyers have (flat) demand for both. Each session is conducted with2, 3 or 4 buyers. Three auction formats are used: the discriminatory, uniformand Vickrey auctions which are all subjected to a variation in the number of bidders and to repeating bid rounds on each subject. The main findings are that there are no significant differences between the uniform and the discriminatory auction in collecting revenue, while the Vickrey auction comes out as inferior. More bidders in the auction result in a greater revenue and level out the performance across the mechanisms. Demand reduction is visible in the experiment, but it is not as prominent as anticipated. Moreover, subjects come closer to equilibrium play over time. Finally, the winner’s curse is less severe than what is reported for inexperienced bidders in other studies.

It is still an open question whether the dynamic or the static format should be used in multi-unit settings, in a uniform price auction. The present study conducts an economic experiment in a common value environment, where it is found that it is more a question of whether the auctioneer wants to facilitate price discovery, and thereby lessen the otherwise pervasive overbidding, or if only the revenue is important. The experiment in the present paper provides evidence that the static format gives a significantly greater revenue than the dynamic auction, in both small and large group sizes. But a higher revenue comes at a cost; half of the auctions in the static format yield negative profits to the bidders, the winner’s curse is more severely widespread in the static auction, and only a minority of the bidders use the equilibrium bidding strategy.

Research on auctions that involve more than one identical item for sale was,almost non-existing in the 90’s, but has since then been getting increasing attention. External incentives for this research have come from the US spectrum, sales, the European 3G mobile-phone auctions,  and Internet auctions. The policy relevance and the huge amount of money involved in many of them have helped the theory and experimental research advance. But in auctions where values are equal across bidders, common value auctions, that is, when the value depends on some outside parameter, equal to all bidders, the research is still embryonic.

This thesis contributes to the topic with three studies. The first uses a Bayesian game to model a simple multi-unit common value auction, the task being to compare equilibrium strategies and the seller’s revenue from three auction formats; the discriminatory, the uniform and the Vickrey auction. The second study conducts an economic laboratory experiment on basis of the first study. The third study comprises an experiment on the multi-unit common value uniform auction and compares the dynamic and the static environments of this format.

The most salient result in both experiments is that subjects overbid. They are victims of the winner’s curse and bid above the expected value, thus earning a negative profit. There is some learning, but most bidders continue to earn a negative profit also in later rounds. The competitive effect when participating in an auction seems to be stronger than the rationality concerns. In the first experiment, subjects in the Vickrey auction do somewhat better in small groups than subjects in the other auction types and, in the second experiment, subjects in the dynamic auction format perform much better than subjects in the static auction format; but still, they overbid.

Due to this overbidding, the theoretical (but not the behavioral) prediction that the dynamic auction should render more revenue than the static fails inthe second experiment. Nonetheless, the higher revenue of the static auction comes at a cost; half of the auctions yield negative profits to the bidders, and the winner’s curse is more severely widespread in this format. Besides, only a minority of the bidders use the equilibrium bidding strategy.The bottom line is that the choice between the open and sealed-bid formats may be more important than the choice of price mechanism, especially in common value settings.

The paper surveys the literature on optimal taxation with emphasis on intermediate goods, or, more specific, freight (road) transport. There are two models frequently used, first, the one emanated from Diamond & Mirrlees' (1971) paper, where the production efficiency lemma made it clear that intermediate goods was not to be taxed. And, second, the Ramsey-Boiteux model where a cost-of-service regulation imposes a budget constraint for the regulated firm. In the latter model, in contrast to the first, freight transports (intermediate goods) are to be taxed in the Ramsey tradition, and thus trades the production efficiency lemma against a budget restriction. The paper also discusses welfare effects due to environmental tax reforms, with emphasis to what has become to known as the double dividend hypothesis. Finally, administrative costs in the context of optimal taxation is touched upon, a subject that is to a large degree repressed in optimal tax theory.

The paper surveys the literature on optimal taxation with emphasis on intermediate goods, or, more specific, freight (road) transport. There are two models frequently used, first, the one emanated from Diamond & Mirrlees' (1971) paper, where the production efficiency lemma made it clear that intermediate goods was not to be taxed. And, second, the Ramsey-Boiteux model where a cost-of-service regulation imposes a budget constraint for the regulated firm. In the latter model, in contrast to the first, freight transports (intermediate goods) are to be taxed in the Ramsey tradition, and thus trades the production efficiency lemma against a budget restriction. The paper also discusses welfare effects due to environmental tax reforms, with emphasis to what has become to known as the double dividend hypothesis. Finally, administrative costs in the context of optimal taxation is touched upon, a subject that is to a large degree repressed in optimal tax theory.

We propose in this paper a discrete bidding model, both on quantities and in pricing. It has a two-unit demand environment where subjects bid for contracts with an unknown redemption value, common to all bidders. Prior to bidding, the bidders receive private signals of information on the (common) value. Both the value and the signals are drawn from a known discrete affiliated joint distribution. The relevant task for the paper is to compare equilibrium strategies and the seller's revenue between the three auction formats. We find that, among the three auction formats below with two players, the Vickrey auction always gives the most revenue to the seller, where the discriminatory auction becomes second and the uniform auction last. We also find that, in equilibrium, bidders bid the same amount on both items in the discriminatory auction; a phenomenon we do not notice in either of the other two auction formats. There, different amount of demand reduction is encountered.

Från oktober 2010 gäller fri konkurrens vad gäller all trafik på järnväg. VTI har intervjuat de tre största operatörer på Västra stambanan för att se hur de upplevde kapacitetsprocessen som ledde fram till tågplanen för 2014 och för att få deras syn på eventuella etableringshinder som kan föreligga på järnvägsmarknaden. Kapaciteten i det svenska järnvägsnätet är per definition begränsad och det finns bara möjlighet att rymma ett visst antal tåg i systemet. Trafikverket fördelar kapaciteten på spåren mellan operatörer som ansöker om tåglägen i en årlig administrativ tilldelningsprocess. I kapacitetstilldelningsprocessen för tågplan 2014 lämnade fyra operatörer in ansökningar om långväga snabbtågstrafik på sträckan Göteborg–Stockholm. I och med att operatörerna i flera fall ansökte om samma tåglägen sattes Trafikverkets tillämpning av samråd, samordning och prioriteringskriterier på prov för första gången sedan marknadsöppningen. De operatörer som utmanar SJ och som vi intervjuat upplever inte att dagens kapacitets-tilldelningsprocess lever upp till kravet på konkurrensneutralitet och icke-diskriminering. Båda ser behov av en mer transparent process, med prioriteringskriterier som ger ett mer förutsägbart utfall och som i större utsträckning tar datoriserade verktyg till hjälp så att den på så sätt både kan genomföras effektivare och ge ett mer effektivt utfall. Alla operatörernas kommentarer av förfarandet visar också att processen med kapacitetstilldelning innehåller ett stort mått av så kallad frivillig samordning för att lösa konflikter kring tåglägen som flera operatörer söker. Detta innebar att operatörerna under slutet av sommaren 2013 sinsemellan samordnade sina önskemål och på så sätt kom överens om vem som fick vilka tåglägen.

The use of mobile phone and similar devices while driving has been a topic of discussion and research for several years. It is now an established fact that driving performance is deteriorated due to distraction but no clear conclusions can yet be drawn concerning influence on crash rates. Better studies on this relationship is needed. Most countries in Europe and many countries elsewhere have introduced different types of bans for handheld devices. Sweden has, however, no such bans. VTI was commissioned by the Swedish Government to outline possible means to reduce the dangerous usage of mobile phones and other communication devices while driving as alternatives to banning. This task was a result of a previous VTI-state-of-the-art review of research on mobile phone and other communication device usage while driving. One of the findings in the review was that bans on handheld phones did not appear to reduce the number of crashes.

Eighteen different countermeasures in three main areas were suggested. (1) Technical solutions such as countermeasures directed towards the infrastructure, the vehicle and the communication device. (2) Education and information, describing different ways to increase knowledge and understanding among stakeholders and different driver categories. (3) Different possibilities for how society, industry and organisations can influence the behaviour of individuals, via policies, rules, recommendations and incentives. Our conclusion is that a combination of different countermeasures is needed – where education and information to the drivers are combined with support and incentives for a safe usage of different communication devices.

The purpose of this paper is to describe Sweden’s recent reforms to open the railway passenger markets to entry, and to addresses four critical issues for the success of the reforms; the allocation of infrastructure capacity, the provision of maintenance and terminal facilities, the access to rolling stock and the provision of information and ticketing to travelers. The analysis shows that the legislation and regulatory tools that are needed to handle these challenges to a large extent remain to be developed.

This study examines individuals' perception of their own road-mortality risk. Swedish data on respondents' subjective risk beliefs is used and compared with objective risk estimates. The objective risk is defined as the risk of the respondent's own age and gender group, and it is found that low and high risk groups over- and underassess their risk levels, respectively. This study replicates the analysis used by Andersson and Lundborg (2007) and the pattern of over- and underassessment found confirms their findings. As in their study, risk beliefs are updated in line with the Bayesian learning model, a relationship not statistically significant in this study, though. Regarding results of individual characteristics and risk beliefs in both studies, whereas, e.g., gender effects are robust, other results suggest a weak relationship between the perception of own road-mortality risk and individual characteristics.

To elicit an affected population's preferences for, e.g., better health or environment stated preference (SP) methods are often used. SP methods are based on hypothetical market settings which necessitates validity tests of the results. This study describes a validity test on the basis of theoretical predictions and empirical findings for private and public safety measures. According to the test, public willingness to pay (WTP) should exceed private WTP.

Stated preference (SP) surveys attempt to obtain monetary values for non-market goods that reflect individuals "true" preferences. Numerous empirical studies suggest that monetary values from SP studies are sensitive to survey design and so may not reflect respondents' true preferences. This study examines the effect of time framing on respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for car safety. We explore how WTP per unit risk reduction depends on the time period over which respondents pay and face reduced risk. Using data from a Swedish contingent valuation survey, we find that WTP is sensitive to time framing; estimates based on an annual scenario are about 30 to 70 percent higher than estimates from a monthly scenario.

Noise is a significant social problem. For example, more than 20 per cent of the European Union's population is exposed to higher noise than what is considered acceptable. The transport sector is a major contributor to society's increasing noise problem, due to increased traffic volumes and urbanization exposing more people to noise. Road traffic is admittedly the largest individual noise source in the transport sector, but other transport modes such as aircraft and railways are also responsible for considerable noise emissions. Noise entails costs for the society. This fact, and that society has different needs, means that policies and projects to reduce noise levels need to be evaluated to secure an efficient resource allocation. Benefit cost analysis is a powerful tool to evaluate noise abatement, but it requires both benefits and costs to be measured in a common metric, i.e. in monetary values. Today's official monetary values for all modes are based on the impact of road-traffic noise on property prices. It is a well established fact that the disturbance which individuals experience differs between modes, and therefore there is a need to estimate monetary values based on the respective modes. This report focuses on road and rail noise, two noise sources with different characteristics. This study describes the need to revise the current official Swedish policy values for noise abatement. Current values for road-traffic noise show a progressive relationship between the social cost and the noise level that is too strong, and values for railway noise has been missing and instead based on results for road noise. Valuation of health effects should also be based on EKM since it is sanctioned within the EU, instead of the approach now proposed by ASEK based on estimated total social costs from noise exposure in relation to estimates from willingness to pay studies.

This study examines the effect of road and railway noise on property prices. It uses the hedonic regression technique on a Swedish data set that contains information about both road and railway noise for each property, and finds that road noise has a larger negative impact on the property prices than railway noise. This is in line with the evidence from the acoustical literature which has shown that individuals are more disturbed by road than railway noise, but contradicts recent results from a hedonic study on data of the United Kingdom.

This study examines the effect of road and railway noise on property prices. It uses the hedonic regression technique on a Swedish data set that contains information about both road and railway noise for each property, and finds that road noise has a larger negative impact on the property prices than railway noise. This is in line with the evidence from the acoustical literature which has shown that individuals are more disturbed by road than railway noise, but contradicts recent results from a hedonic study on data of the United Kingdom.

This study uses the contingent valuation method to elicit individuals' preferences for their own and others' safety in road-traffic. Whereas one group is asked about a private safety device for themselves, other groups are asked about safety devices for their children, household, relatives and the public. Support is found for the hypothesis that individuals are not purely selfish when it comes the safety of others.

Individuals' perception of their own road-traffic and overall mortality risks are examined in this paper. Perceived risk is compared with the objective risk of the respondents' peers, i.e. their own gender and age group, and the results suggest that individuals' risk perception of their own risk is biased. For road-traffic risk we obtain similar results to what have been found previously in the literature, overassessment and underassessment among low- and high-risk groups, respectively. For overall risk we find that all risk groups underestimate their risk. The results also indicate that men's risk bias is larger than women's.

This study investigates whether or not the scale bias found in contingent valuation (CVM) studies on mortality risk reductions is a result of cognitive constraints among respondents. Scale bias refers to insensitivity and non near-proportionality of the respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) to the size of the risk reduction. Two hundred Swedish students participated in an experiment where their cognitive ability was tested before they took part in a CVM-study where they were asked about their WTP to reduce bus-mortality risk. The results imply that WTP answers from respondents with a higher cognitive ability are less flawed by scale bias.

This paper on the value of a statistical life (VSL) has been prepared for the Handbook in Transport Economics, edited by André de Palma, Robin Lindsey, Emile Quinet and Roger Vickerman. The paper's first objective is to survey some classical theoretical and empirical findings in the VSL literature; but it also attempts to clarify some of these issues often raised by the application of the WTP approach to study of mortality risks.

The Swedish Parliament has decided that, in order to mitigate externalities in railway infrastructure, operators in the Swedish railway infrastructure shall pay charges based on short-run marginal social costs. Internalization of the social cost from noise is of particular interest, since it is the only environmental problem which people perceive as more troublesome today than they did in the early 1990s. Inclusion of a noise component in rail infrastructure charges raises two problems: (i) the monetary evaluation of noise abatement, since noise is a non-marketed good, and (ii) the estimation of the effect on the noise level that one extra train will create. We are interested in the marginal noise, since infrastructure charges based on the short-run marginal cost principle should be based on the effect from the marginal train, not the noise level itself. We show in this study that, based on already obtained knowledge, it is possible to implement a noise component in the rail infrastructure charges. Those values that already today are used to estimate the social cost from noise exposure (which in Sweden are based on noise from road-traffic) in cost benefit analysis can also be used to calculate the marginal cost. We recommend, however, that further research is carried out in order to get more robust estimates and to get estimates based on railway traffic. We also show that the existing noise estimation models can easily be modified to estimate the marginal noise. Noise infrastructure charges give the operators incentives to reduce their noise emissions. We believe that this kind of charges can be used to reduce overall emission levels to an optimal social level, but that it is important that these charges are based on monetary estimates for rail-traffic and not road-traffic.

This study outlines a method to estimate the short run marginal cost (SRMC) for road and railway noise. It is based on standardized calculation methods for total noise levels and monetary cost estimates from well established evaluation methods. Here official calculation methods and monetary values are used for Sweden, but the estimation method for the SRMC outlined can be directly applied using other standardized noise calculation methods and monetary values. This implies that the current knowledge regarding the calculation of total noise levels and the evaluation of the social cost of noise can be extended to estimate the marginal effect as well. This is an important finding since it enables policy makers to price noise externalities in an appropriate way. Several sensitivity tests run for the SRMC show that: (i) increasing the total traffic on the infrastructure has only a minor influence, (ii) estimates are quite sensitive to the number of exposed individuals, and (iii) to the monetary values used. Hence, benefits transfer, i.e. using monetary values elicited based on road noise for railway noise, should be done with caution or not at all. Results also show that the use of quiet technology can have a significant effect on the SRMC. The fact that this model is able to differentiate not only modes of transport, but also vehicles and even technologies is an important finding. It is essential that the noise charges give the operators the right incentives to choose their optimal allocation.

In order to mitigate negative effects from traffic it has been decided that infrastructure charges in the European Union (EU) should be based on short run marginal costs. The Swedish Parliament has legislated that operators in the Swedish railway infrastructure must pay charges based on short run marginal social costs in order to mitigate externalities in railway infrastructure. Internalization of the social cost of noise is of particular interest, since it is the only environmental problem perceived as more troublesome today than in the early 1990s. Inclusion of a noise component in rail infrastructure charges raises two issues: (i) the monetary evaluation of noise abatement, since noise is a non-market good, and (ii) the estimation of the effect on the noise level that one extra train will create. Regarding the latter, we are interested in the marginal noise, since infrastructure charges based on the short-run marginal cost principle should be based on the effect from the marginal train, not the noise level itself. Using already existing knowledge, this study shows that it is possible to implement a noise component in the rail infrastructure charges. The values that are used today to estimate the social cost of noise exposure in cost benefit analysis can also be used to calculate the marginal cost. We recommend, however, that further research be carried out in order to get more robust estimates based on railway traffic. We also show that the existing noise estimation models can easily be modified to estimate the marginal noise. Noise infrastructure charges give the operators incentives to reduce their noise emissions. We believe that this kind of charge can be used to reduce overall emission levels to an optimal social level, but that it is important for the charge to be based on monetary estimates for rail-traffic and not road-traffic.

In order to mitigate the negative effects of transportation and to achieve a competitive transport sector, infrastructure charges in the European Union shall be based on short-run marginal costs. This paper shows that railway-noise charges can be estimated using already obtained knowledge of monetary and acoustical noise evaluation. Most European countries have standardised calculation methods for total noise level, which can be used to estimate the marginal acoustical effect. Based on a Swedish case study (with a relatively high number of exposed individuals), railway-noise charges are estimated at 0.026, 0.099 and 0.89 e/km for commuter, high-speed and freight trains, respectively.

One way of mitigating the negative effects of noise from road traffic is to include the external cost of noise in a road charging system. This study shows how standardized calculation methods for road traffic noise can be used together with monetary estimates of the social cost of noise exposure to calculate charges based on the social marginal cost. Using Swedish data on traffic volume and individuals exposed to road noise, together with official Swedish monetary values for noise exposure, we estimate road-noise charges for light (cars) and heavy (trucks) vehicles.

New railway legislation in Sweden has increased the need for transparent access charges on the Swedish railway network. We estimate cost functions for infrastructure operation, maintenance and renewal in the Swedish national railway network, using unobserved effects models and calculate marginal costs for railway infrastructure wear and tear. We find evidence of unobserved fixed effects at a track section level for infrastructure operation and maintenance costs. The estimated weighted average marginal infrastructure operation cost is SEK 0.12 per train kilometre and the estimated marginal maintenance cost is SEK 0.0073 per gross tonne kilometre. Altogether, the results indicate that the current charge for railway infrastructure wear and tear in Sweden is below marginal cost.

We analyse maintenance cost data for Swedish railway infrastructure in relation to traffic volumes and network characteristics, and separate the cost impact from passenger and freight trains. Lines with mixed passenger and freight traffic, and dedicated freight lines are analysed separately using both log-linear and Box-Cox regression models. We find that for mixed lines, the Box-Cox specification is preferred, while a log-linear model is chosen in the case of dedicated freight lines. The cost elasticity with respect to output is found to be higher for passenger trains than for freight trains. From a marginal cost pricing perspective, freight trains are currently over-charged, while passenger trains are under-charged.

In this paper, dynamic aspects of railway infrastructure operation and maintenance costs in Sweden are explored. Econometric cost functions are estimated to check the robustness of previous marginal cost estimates by introducing lags and leads of both dependent and independent variables. We find support for a forward-looking behaviour within the Swedish National Rail Administration (Banverket) as both infrastructure operation and maintenance costs are reduced prior to a major renewal. There are also indications of both lagged traffic and costs affecting the cost structure, but these results are more uncertain due to limitations in data.

In this paper, renewal costs for railway tracks are investigated using survival analysis. The purpose is to derive the effect from increased traffic volumes on rail renewal cycle lengths and to calculate associated marginal costs. A flow sample of censored data containing almost 1 500 observations on the Swedish main railway network is used. We specify Weibull accelerated failure time regression models, and estimate deterioration elasticities for total tonnage as well as for passenger and freight tonnages separately. Marginal costs are calculated as a change in present values of renewal costs from premature renewal following increased traffic volumes.

We analyse maintenance cost data for Swedish railway infrastructure in relation to traffic volumes and other characteristics, and separate the cost impact from passenger and freight trains. Lines with mixed passenger and freight traffic, and dedicated freight lines are analysed separately using both log-linear and Box-Cox regression models. We find that for mixed lines, the Box-Cox specification is preferred, while a log-linear model is chosen in the case of dedicated freight lines. The cost elasticity with respect to output is found to be higher for passenger trains than for freight trains. From a marginal cost pricing perspective, freight trains are currently paying too much, while passenger trains should be charged more. An adjusted pricing scheme based on these results would still lead to higher revenues than today if total demand is unaffected.

In this paper, renewal costs for railway tracks are investigated using survival analysis. The purpose is to derive the effect from increased traffic volumes on rail renewal cycle lengths and to calculate associated marginal costs. A flow sample of censored data containing almost 1 300 observations on the Swedish main railway network is used. We specify Weibull accelerated failure time regression models, and estimate deterioration elasticities for total tonnage as well as for passenger and freight tonnages separately. Marginal costs are calculated as a change in present values of renewal costs from premature renewal following increased traffic volumes. The marginal cost for aggregate freight and passenger trains is estimated to approximately SEK 0.002 per gross ton kilometre.

Möjligheten att fatta beslut om behovet av anslagsmedel till drift, underhåll och reinvestering av vägaroch järnvägar baserat på ett väl strukturerat underlag är idag små. Detta skapar betydande risker attmedel används på ett samhällsekonomiskt ineffektivt sätt. För att Trafikverket ska kunna genomföradenna verksamhet så att sannolikheten att medlen används på rätt sätt ökar krävs därför en utveckling avett transparent beslutstöd.VTI redovisar i föreliggande rapport en kartläggning av kunskapsläget inom de olika delområden därkunskaper krävs för att få till stånd en samhällsekonomisk analys av drift, underhåll och reinvestering.Vår bedömning är att det idag inte finns modellverktyg som gör det möjligt att utan vidare genomförasådana analyser. Samtidigt visar genomgången att det finns goda förutsättningar att redan inom relativtkort tid ta fram ett underlag som gör det möjligt att besvara åtminstone delar av de frågeställningar somformulerats. Genomgången pekar således på att det finns stora möjligheter att flytta fram positionernabåde inom väg- och järnvägsområdet. Fem specifika projekt har utformats varav tre avser insatser på kortsikt och två på lång sikt. Målsättningen på lång sikt är att kunna göra en bedömning av vilkenkostnadsvolym och tillståndsnivå som behövs utifrån ett samhällsekonomiskt perspektiv på olika vägaroch järnvägar.

Economic theory advocates marginal cost pricing for efficient utilisation of transport infrastructure. A growing body of literature has emerged on the issue of rail marginal infrastructure wear and tear costs, but the majority of the work is focused on costs for infrastructure maintenance. Railway track renewals are a substantial part of an infrastructure manager’s budget, but in disaggregated statistical analyses they cause problems for traditional regression models since there is a piling up of values of the dependent variable at zero. Previous econometric work has sought to circumvent the problem by aggregation in some way. In this paper we instead apply corner solution models to disaggregate (tracksection) data, including the zero observations. We derive track renewal cost elasticities with respect to traffic volumes and in turn marginal renewal costs using Swedish railway renewal data over the period 1999 to 2009. This paper is the first attempt in the literature to apply corner solution models, and in particular the two-part model, to disaggregate renewal cost data in railways. It is also the first paper that we are aware of to report usage elasticities specifically for renewal costs and therefore adds important new evidence to the previous literature where there is a paucity of studies on renewals and considerable uncertainty over the effects of rail traffic on renewal costs.

The presence of distortive taxation and agglomeration benefits in the labour market means that there are benefits and losses not captured by standard cost-benefit analyses of transport policy measures. Recent theoretical analyses have raised concerns that the labour market effects of congestion charges may constitute considerable losses in the form of reduced aggregate labour income, over and above what is captured by the consumer surplus in the standard analysis of congestion charges – possibly to the extent that congestion charges may reduce aggregate social welfare, contrary to conventional wisdom in transport economics. The sign and size of these effects are an empirical question, however. We investigate this issue by estimating the labour income effects of the Stockholm congestion charges, using an estimated relationship between workplace accessibility and labour income. Results show positive effects on labour income, meaning that the “wider economic benefits” of this system are in fact benefits, not losses. It turns out to be crucial that the model accounts for value-of-time heterogeneity in the income/accessibility relationship and in the calculation of generalized travel costs.

Tre studier gällande cyklisters värdering av restidsbesparingar vid resor på olika typer av cykelvägar och fotgängares värdering av restidsbesparingar på gångvägar sammanfattas i detta notat. För cykelstudierna har även effekter av hälsoaspekter studerats. Resultaten visar att värdering av restidsbesparing är lägre vid cykling på cykelbana än vid cykling i blandtrafik eller i cykelfält i körbanan. Att cykla på cykelbana intill väg ansågs dock inte vara sämre än att cykla på cykelbana långt ifrån väg, vilket tyder på att respondenterna inte tar med buller och luftföroreningar i beräkningen när de väljer att cykla. Respondenter som inkluderade hälsoaspekter i deras val att cykla hade lägre värdering av restidsbesparing än respondenter som uppgav att hälsoaspekter var av mindre betydelse, detta gällde främst vid cykling på cykelbanor. Värderingarna av restidsbesparing gällande cykling skilde sig markant åt beroende på respondenternas alternativa färdmedel, där personerna med bil som alternativt färdmedel hade mycket högre värden än de med kollektivtrafik som alternativt färdmedel. Resultaten visade att den största överflyttningen till cykel skulle ske om all cykling efter förändringen sker på cykelbana långt ifrån väg. När det gäller fotgängare visade det sig att individer inte föredrar separerade gång- och cykelbanor eller helt avskilda gångbanor i den utsträckning man kanske kan förvänta sig. Huvudsaken verkar vara att promenaden sker på en gångbana av något slag och inte längs vägkanten på en väg med motorfordon. Ett annat resultat som är värt att lyftas fram är att sikten verkar ha stor betydelse för vilken väg personer väljer att gå. Övriga gångvägsattribut som underhåll, avstånd till väg med motorfordon och typ av korsning hade inte alls lika stor betydelse.

Bakgrunden till föreliggande studie är att Trafikverket vill utveckla samhällsekonomiska kalkylmetoder för cykelåtgärder, bland annat för att kunna jämföra den samhällsekonomiska lönsamheten av sådana med den för andra åtgärder, till exempel väginvesteringar. En tung post i sådana kalkyler är ofta restidsvärdet. Syftet med studien är att skatta restidsvärden för cykelresor som är geografiskt generaliserbara över landet. Vidare görs ett försök att analysera effekterna av cyklisters hälsomedvetenhet på restidsvärderingen och om möjligt föreslå en dekomponering av restidsvärdet i hälsoeffekt respektive övrigt tidsvärde/bekvämlighetsvärde. I rapporten redovisas en teoretisk modell samt inledande analyser och skattningar av restidsvärden som gjorts utifrån materialet. Resultaten visar att det finns en skillnad i storlek på restidsvärdet beroende på om respondenterna har bil eller kollektivtrafik som alternativt färdmedel till cykel. Ett annat resultat är att restidsvärdet tenderar att minska ju mindre riskfylld och obekväm cykelvägen är, främst vid förflyttning från blandtrafik/cykelfält till cykelbana (invid väg eller ej i anslutning till väg). Studien indikerar även att personer som inte tar med hälsoaspekter i deras val att cykla har högre restidsvärden än personer som anser att hälsoaspekter är av betydelse. Störst effekt verkar hälsoaspekten ha vid cykling på cykelbana. En slående aspekt av de skattningar som gjorts är att respondenterna (som är cyklister) uppgav svar som resulterade i restidsvärden för cykel som vida överskrider motsvarande värden för det alternativa färdmedlet. Även om värdena är höga så ligger de någorlunda i linje med tidigare studier, i varje fall när det gäller personer med kollektivtrafik som alternativt färdmedel till cykel.

In this paper we investigate the impact of four cycling environments on the propensity to cycle to work. The types of infrastructure investigated were mixed traffic, bicycle lane in the road way, bicycle path next to the road, and bicycle path not in connection with the road. In the mode choice model we combined three different data sets, two with stated preference data and one with revealed preference data, restricted to only include journeys of 12 km or less. At baseline, 24% of the cycling time was spent in mixed traffic, 2% in bicycle lanes, 42% on a bicycle path near the road way, and 31% on a bicycle path not in connection to a road way. Values of travel time savings for bicycling independent on infrastructure (based on revealed preference data) was 176 SEK/h, for cycling in mixed traffic it was 241 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle lane in the road way it was 249 SEK/h, for cycling on a bicycle path next to the road it was 178 SEK/h, and for cycling on a bicycle path far from the road it was 167 SEK/h (all differentiated values are based on rescaled stated preference data). Using an incremental form of the logit model we found that the biggest shift to cycle that may be possible is if all cycling after the change takes place on the bike path far from the road. The proportion of cyclists in this sample would then increase from 51.0% to 61.3%, i.e. an increase of 20%.

Bakgrunden till den här studien är en förfrågan från Trafikverket att ta fram ett samhällsekonomiskt underlag för fotgängares värderingar av deras gångmiljö och hur olika åtgärder påverkar besluten att gå. De frågeställningar som forskarna undersökte var: 1. Vilken typ av väg föredrar fotgängare när de väljer väg? 2. Vad är betalningsviljan för att få mer attraktiva gångvägar? 3. Hur många kommer börja gå om det byggs mer attraktiva gångvägar? Den tredje frågeställningen var dock inte möjlig att besvara på grund av för låg svarsfrekvens i den delstudien. Resultatet från studien visar att individer inte verkar föredra separerade gång- och cykelbanor eller helt avskilda gångbanor i den utsträckning man kanske kan förvänta sig. Huvudsaken verkar vara att promenaden sker på en gångbana av något slag, och inte längs vägkanten på en väg med motorfordon. Sikten verkar ha stor betydelse för vilken väg personer väljer att gå. Övriga gångvägsattribut som underhåll, avstånd till väg med motorfordon och typ av korsning hade inte alls lika stor betydelse. Forskarna konstaterar att intresset för fotgängarfrågor inte är så stort. Respondenterna verkade också ha svårigheter med att svara på flera av frågorna och i fortsatta studier kring fotgängares värderingar rekommenderas därför att undersökningarna genomförs i någon typ av intervjuform eftersom det då är lättare att förtydliga oklarheter.

In this paper we investigate how attitudes to health and exercise in connection with cycling influence the estimation of values of travel time savings in different kinds of bicycle environments (mixed traffic, bicycle lane in the road way, bicycle path next to the road, and bicycle path not in connection with the road). The results, based on two Swedish stated choice studies, suggest that the values of travel time savings are lower when cycling in better conditions. Surprisingly, the respondents do not consider cycling on a path next to the road worse than cycling on a path not in connection to the road, indicating that they do not take traffic noise and air pollution into account in their decision to cycle. No difference can be found between cycling on a road way (mixed traffic) and cycling in a bicycle lane in the road way. The results also indicate that respondents that include health aspects in their choice to cycle have lower value of travel time savings for cycling than respondents that state that health aspects are of less importance, at least when cycling on a bicycle path. The appraisals of travel time savings regarding cycling also differ a lot depending on the respondents’ alternative travel mode. The individuals who stated that they will take the car if they do not cycle have a much higher valuation of travel time savings than the persons stating public transport as the main alternative to cycling.

Drivers' behaviour in intersections is not only influenced by the rules of priority in the intersection but also by the design of the intersection as well as the behaviour of other road users. If behaviours that supplement or contradict formal traffic rules become common in a particular traffic intersection, it is an indication that an informal traffic rule has been used. In the present study a sample of 1276 Swedish drivers (aged 18-74 years) responded to questions about how often they would yield to another driver in 10 hypothetical crossing situations. In all crossing situations the respondents were told that there was no major road, implying that they should always yield the right of way to traffic coming from the right (the right-hand ride). The results showed that drivers' reported behaviour varied over different intersections. As expected, the formal rule of priority (i.e., the direction from which the other driver was coming) was an important determinant for drivers' yielding behaviour. However, cues for informal rules such as the other driver's behaviour and road breadth were also of importance. Different groups of drivers could be identified according to their strategies of yielding behaviour. One group of drivers reported that they rarely yielded, whereas another group reported that they always did so. A third group complied with the right-hand rule most of the time, whereas the behaviour of a fourth group varied over intersections. The implications of the results and the appropriateness of the right-hand rule are discussed.

The public typically considers urban congestion to be a serious problem. In the scientific community it is considered basic knowledge that pricing is often the only effective way to mitigate such congestion. However, implementation of congestion charging continues to meet hard resistance from the public, and politicians continue to rule out that policy option referring to lack of public acceptance. Many authors have explained the paradox by the public?s (layman) suspicion that charging would not be effective and not reduce congestion. From a number of implemented schemes, we also know that once they have experience from (the effects of) charging, the public tend to change to more positive, which seems to support the hypothesis that lack of experience and erroneous subjective predictions of effects causes ?the problem?.

To analyse the hypothesized causal link this study explores how the (i)attitudes towards congestion charging in Stockholm and (ii)the expectancy/understanding of the effects of charging (co-)varied over time and between individuals in the Stockholm public during different phases of the implementation process: before (autumn 2005) and during the Trial (spring 2006), and after permanent introduction of charging (autumn 2007).

For the analyses, we have employed ordinal logit models. This allows us to draw conclusions on the simultaneous relation(s) between acceptance on one hand and individual background characteristics, personal experience and understanding of effects on the other. One of the many advantages with the analytical approach employed is that it allows us to control for, for example, car ownership in the analyses of gender differences in attitudes and predicted effects ? which has given new insights compared to the one-dimensional analyses presented earlier.

A brief summary of results: The differences between men and women in attitudes and understanding of congestion charging are negligible when difference in car availability is taken into account. The frequently discussed difference between inner city inhabitants and people living in the regional periphery, too, turns out to be largely explained by differences in car ownership.

When experience is gained, people do indeed trust that charging mitigates congestion to a higher extent than they did before: Those that agree that ?congestion charges will decrease [have decreased] the queues to and from the inner-city? is a significantly larger proportion of the population during the Trial, than they were before. Also in accordance with previous results, the attitudes towards the charges became more positive after introduction. This was a continuous process over time, so that attitudes were more positive during the Trial than before, and even more positive after permanent introduction than they were during the Trial. However, the results clearly show that the change in attitudes was much stronger, and continued over a longer period of time, than what could be explained by the learning effect leading to a better understanding of the effects on congestion.

Thus, based on our results, our understanding of which the influential factors are behind the observed effect from experience on attitudes to charging, has to be modified. The mechanisms clearly go beyond ?demonstrating? that charging may effectively mitigate congestion, which is the reason most commonly given in the literature so far.

Our results have important policy implications for which arguments that can be expected to be most effective in building public acceptance for charging, and which subpopulations that are most likely to be influenced by such argumentation.

In the transport sector, major efforts have been concentrated on developing more fuel efficient engines and vehicles. However, the road infrastructure, its operation and maintenance also use energy and do have an effect on traffic fuel consumption and emissions. The objective of this study is to estimate the total energy use in a life cycle perspective of a road infrastructure investment and the impact of different phases of the roads life time. How the results are related to the transport objectives is also addressed.

A life cycle assessment method is used to evaluate an infrastructure investment, including construction, operation, maintenance and traffic during 60 years. A small community is used as a case study where a bypass has been built and the result show that this investment will increase the total energy use by approximately 60 %, or 1 550 TJ compared to not building it. A major part of the increase is due to traffic, and since mostly fossil fuel is used there will also be an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The result stipulates that the aspects of energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gases has not been accounted for in the planning or it has been considered as less important than other aspects, e.g. traffic safety and accessibility.

På uppdrag av Statens energimyndighet har VTI granskat EU-kommissionens konsekvensanalys av EU:s färdplan för transportsektorn och kan konstatera att analysen uppvisar brister. Målet är att EU:s inhemska växthusgasutsläpp ska ha minskat med 80 procent år 2050 jämfört med 1990. För transportsektorns del är målet en 60-procentig minskning. EU:s färdplan ska föreslå en politik som leder till måluppfyllelse. Granskningen som redovisas i VTI notat 34-2013 omfattar en diskussion kring: (a) de uppsatta målen för EU och för transportsektorn utifrån ett kostnadseffektivitetsperspektiv, (b) konsistensen och allsidigheten i kommissionens analyser (c) möjligheten till att utforma mer kostnadseffektiva styrmedels- och åtgärdspaket samt (d) behovet av ytterligare konsekvensanalyser. Rapporten konstaterar att kommissionens konsekvensanalys för transportsektorn uppvisar brister. Analysen är inte transparent nog för att man fullt ut ska förstå vad som sker och driver resultaten. Det går inte att finna någon tydlig redovisning av vilka koldioxidpriser som krävs för att nå 60 procentsbetinget i det ”prisbaserade policyalternativet”. Den redovisar inte heller effektsambanden mellan FoU och utsläpp respektive fysisk planering och utsläpp. Dessutom omfattar inte konsekvensanalyserna alla relevanta kostnader och därför blir analyserna räkneexempel med begränsat värde. Kanske mest allvarligt är att Kommissionen föreslår en politik som innebär att EU:s transportsektor skulle möta ett pris på koldioxidutsläpp som är betydligt lägre än det pris som antas för resten av världen. Dessutom definierar Färdplanen ett policypaket som tycks innehålla stora investeringar/åtgärder som inte utan vidare kan kopplas till uppgiften att på ett kostnadseffektivt vis minska växthusgasutsläppen. Det är med andra ord inte svårt att konstruera mer kostnadseffektiva policypaket än de som Kommissionen konsekvensanalyserat. Vidare är det svårt att värja sig från tanken att klimatfrågan här kidnappats för att driva igenom projekt som inte har någon större effekt eller kanske till och med ökar utsläppen. När det är dags för nästa utvärdering är risken därför stor att vi kommer att observera att transportsektorn inte heller denna gång har utvecklats enligt den vision som målades upp i vitboken för transportsektorn.

We study an environmental policy that (i) tax some emitters while others are covered by a cap-and-trade system and (ii) index the tax level to the permit price. Such a policy could be attractive in a world where abatement costs are uncertain and the regulator has information about the correlation between the cost shocks to the two groups. We show that this index policy yields lower expected social cost than the policy mix studied in Mandell (2008). The value of indexing is higher the stronger the correlation is, the steeper the marginal abatement benefit curve is, and the more uncertain we are about the taxed sector’s abatement costs. The index policy may also outperform the uniform policy alternatives emission tax and cap-and-trade system. The conditions for this are more restrictive, though. Given parameter values plausible for the European climate change policy context, expected net-gains are small or negative.

This paper discusses principles for identifying and appraising the impact on GHG (green house gases) emissions from electrifying transportation. We are primarily interested in the road-to-rail case, but the principles apply to other cases as well, both inside and outside the transportation sector. The underlying motive for the paper is an ongoing debate regarding how and to what extent investments in rail infrastructure influences GHG emissions and how to adequately consider the effects in cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) of such investments. Various approaches have been proposed.